[GCFL-discuss] Silence of the...

[Discussion of the Good, Clean Funnies List]

Dave,

I am complimented that you believe me to be 4 billion years old, the age
any mere human would require in order to understand everything about the
weather. Sadly, I cannot accept this undeserved honor, and must admit
that I was only born in 1954. Some of the most deadly hurricanes on
record preceded my birth. The age when Antarctica was a tropical paradise
(?) was millions of years before I existed. I cannot say of my own
personal knowledge whether continental drift put it at the equator,
whether tumbling of the earth's axis put it at the equator, or whether
the over-all temperature of our planet allowed for palm trees to grow at
the poles.

It is a good possibility that the net result of global warming might be a
new ice age. Neither God nor the observable laws of nature as far as we
know them run in straight lines. Increased ocean depth could allow waters
of the Atlantic and Arctic oceans to mix in ways that they do not at
present, which seems to have been a factor in precipitating past ice
ages. That leaves two interesting problems.

First, while it might be natural, it might be quite inconvenient, even
deadly, for a large part of the earth's population.

Second, while certain progressions and swings might be natural, if we are
speeding things up, or introducing new variables, it could cause a good
deal of damage we would prefer to avoid. Of course, those with their
heads buried in the sand would prefer not to take the responsible course
of acknowledging cause and effect.

The subject is indeed complex, and our knowledge is terribly incomplete.
It is silly to respond to a hot summer, like this year, with the
conclusion "global warming." After all, last summer was relatively cool,
and that was well after warnings about "global warming" began. We will
not KNOW for sure until and unless the worst damage is done. That is a
problem with preventive measures. A common response to a really effective
crime-fighting program is to cut the budget of the police department
because "there isn't much crime now anyway." Then, when the crime rate
goes back up, people demand billions for defense, not necessarily for the
most effective programs that were previously gutted.

Weather reports on the prospects for the hurricane season suggest the
possibility of something more than a natural cycle. It is true that for
the last forty or fifty years, the incidence of hurricanes has been
unusually low. Sadly, that was the period when real estate developers
were crowding hurricane-prone coasts with expensive vacation homes and
the businesses to support them. That was short-sighted, and those who
bought those properties will be paying the price for many years. So will
taxpayers, since FEMA has to cover a lot of the losses. But there
definitely seems to be a good deal of warmer ocean waters behind this
crop of hurricanes, which could mean things are going to get a lot meaner
than natural cycles alone would explain.

On the other hand, maybe the increased number and ferocity of hurricanes
is nature's, and God's, way of dissipating the increased heat, which may
reduce the drought and the high temperatures inland, which may be good
for people in the interior of the continent.

Quama may be right that the impact of greenhouse gases is being
overestimated. But, there are solid studies of global temperature which
show a gradual rise directly matching the growth of wood-burning
populations in Europe, India and China, then the growth of industry. This
pattern does not match what can be established of previous rise and fall
in temperatures.

It is worth considering all the data. It is worth having an open,
no-hold's barred, discussion of all the possibilities. There is some
serious scientific work on the subject, which is more precise than "oh
look, the permafrost is melting." Among those who are doubtful, are some
who simply find it economically more convenient to keep doing whatever
they do to make money, without considering that they MAY in fact be doing
substantial damage to the rest of us. But that is nothing new. And, those
who want to deny the entire subject, can easily find some darn fool
talking about how New York will be flooded by 2009, which is probably not
going to happen, and then the opposite fools will say "See, there's
nothing to it."

Siarlys